Utter Nonsense!
Next week Tuesday, registered voters in 22 States will go to the polls to fill out their ballots by making their choices in the Presidential sweepstakes for the two major parties. This day has been dubbed “Super Tuesday” for a long time due to the multitude of primary elections being held across the country. And all this has been sanctioned by the National Committees of the two major parties, Democrats and Republicans. In fact, having their delegates at the National conventions reduced or even totally eliminated has punished some States that held their primary elections or caucuses on earlier dates. The presidential candidates on both sides had no say in the matter and therefore had to go along with it.
What does this mean and why do we think it makes no sense? There are several reasons why Common Sense Authors questions all this. Up until the end of January 2008, the candidates have visited for several months the so called “early States” endless times, have spent many millions of dollars in campaign advertising, have gone door to door to ask people for their vote. There have been numerous televised presidential debates with candidates in both major parties. Now what do they have to show for all this? Voting has only taken place in seven States with a combined population of somewhere near 38 million people, the equivalent of California.
Super Tuesday Revealed
On February 5 or as it is called ‘Super Tuesday’, the combined total of population in these 22 States is slightly less than 150 million. That is nearly four times the amount of people as in the previous seven States. Considering that the Republican candidates have been campaigning full time in Florida up until January 29, they now have less than one week to woo voters in these 22 States. Makes perfect sense, does it not? We do not think so!
We have previously written that what counts at the party conventions in summer are delegates won by the candidates at the caucuses and primaries. In the first seven States, the Republicans have assigned 211 delegates (out of a total of 2380) while the Democrats have distributed 174 delegates (out of a total of 4050). Here comes Super Tuesday and the number of delegates at stake on this one day is 1026 on the Republican side while the Democrats will assign 2064 delegates. We have to ask again: Makes perfect sense, right? Once more, we do not think so! In case you want to verify the numbers, check out their source.
While the delegates on the Democrat side will be assigned proportionally based on voting result percentages, the Republicans have two ways of assigning delegates: Proportionally and Winner-take-all (where the winner of a State’s election will get all delegates). Out of the 22 States, ten use Winner-take-all rules; Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma and Utah. The combined delegate count in those States is 634; California with 173, Georgia with 72, Missouri with 58, New Jersey with 52 and New York with 101. The candidates have a week to campaign actively to get those delegates; will they spend a lot of time in Connecticut with 30 delegates, Delaware with 18 delegates, Oklahoma with 41 delegates and Utah with 36 delegates? We do not think so!
One could be so bold to guess that John McCain will most likely not be challenged in Arizona and his rivals might not contest Mitt Romney winning Massachusetts and Utah. Mike Huckabee has probably figured out that his best chances are States with large number of evangelical voters and his home State of Arkansas. It would not be unreasonable to think that Rudy Giuliani will concentrate on New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. How about Illinois where 70 delegates are at stake proportionally? Do you think that any candidate will fly to Alaska to get a majority of their 29 delegates? How about the 18 delegates in the Winner-take-all contest in Delaware? Will any candidate spend a lot of time there? We do not think so!
Caucus Sense?
You probably understand by now why we question this scheduling system designed by the two major parties in holding caucuses and primary elections in the States of our country. Why would tradition dictate this so called ‘retail campaigning’ in a few small States early where not really many delegates are at stake and then hold election with almost half the States on a given day where the candidates have little hope of visiting in the week leading up to Super Tuesday?
Another aspect that should be considered is the fact that several candidates are now simply running out of campaign funds since they spent quite a bit of it early on and now will hardly have the time to attend fundraisers because they have to try and meet as many potential voters as is humanly possible. One reason why this is very unusual this year rests with the fact that there are no incumbents or heir-apparent running. There have been no clear frontrunners in either party even though many thought that Hillary Clinton had to be called the favorite on the Democrat side. But this has been proven wrong in that she and Barack Obama have turned it into an exciting race for the nomination. With proportional assignation of delegates, we do not think that a winner will be declared on February 6 on the Democrat side. The same holds true for the Republicans, while a candidate might appear to be a frontrunner after Super Tuesday’s results have been published, there are still over 1100 additional delegates yet to be assigned after February 6.
Caucus Remedy?
While all of this is now playing out according to the adopted rules, we have to raise the question if the two major parties might not be advised to come up with a better system for 2012 when the next Presidential primary elections will be held. While we would not propose a single primary/caucuses election date for all States some time in the spring, could it not be organized in such a way that on four such first Tuesdays from February to May the various States would agree to hold their primaries/caucuses in proportion that an almost equal amount of delegates would be at stake. This would allow the candidates to reach voters in most states and therefore give voters a better chance to possibly observe one or more candidate nearby.
After all, should the voters not play the primary role in these elections? Why should voters in many States have to decide what the polls show and the media puts out on the candidates? It is wrong. A vote for a candidate should not be placed on who is the frontrunner at any given time nor should a voter be put in a position where his or her vote does not even matter any longer. It would also allow all candidates to concentrate for an entire month on the 12 or 13 States where elections are being held on a certain Tuesday. While all candidates can spend a lot of time raising funds for their campaigns in the time leading up to the actual election dates (the entire year prior to election year), they can take some time off for the holidays and start right after New Year’s in earnest. What we have right now is not correct and we repeat once again,
It simply makes no sense!
This article and others on Common Sense Authors are designed to provoke further thought and investigation. It is not the intent for the articles to be politically biased. Sources are referenced in each article to encourage readers to delve into the supporting material. We welcome all readers to participate with their point of view either in support or contrary with additional information sources.
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