It is almost impossible these days to watch television or read a newspaper without being bombarded about the very latest polls taken in political races prior to the upcoming mid-term elections on November 2, 2010. This is in and of itself nothing new during election years, it happens every two years in America. These polls might somewhat accurately reflect the sentiment and attitudes of voters even if they – the polls – differ in how they are conducted. Some of them are taken by asking anybody, others are only asking registered voters and another type of poll asks only “likely” voters. These tend to be more accurate than other polls but in the end, they are only snapshots for the days these polls are taken. And while successive and frequent polls can indicate trends, the most important poll, of course, is the one taking place on November 2. That is the day when the vast majority of votes are being cast at polling places around the country.
For us here at Common Sense University two other factors weigh very heavily this year, maybe more so than others. They are called ‘Voter Intensity and Turnout’ and the amount of ‘Voting Fraud’. Unlike other mid-term elections in the past, it is clear that this year’s will be different. Ever since April of 2009 when the so called Tea Party movement began, we have seen incumbents being challenged and even defeated during primaries and these folks are now getting ready for the general election in two weeks. While results of their efforts cannot be truly evaluated at this time, we believe that their impact will be immense. They have grown stronger and better organized and will without a doubt play a significant role in the outcome of many races. The Voter Intensity is so very strong this year that they will make quite a number of polls look ridiculously wrong after the votes have been counted. The Tea Party movement has been successful to maintain if not build on their momentum from the primaries and their messages will be reflected in the voter turnout.
This leaves the issue of ‘Voting Fraud’. With the near financial demise of ACORN in the past year, we do not think that voting fraud will play as important and widespread a role this time around. The voter intensity is simply not there on the Democrat’s side and it is assumed that they will not turn out in the large numbers as they did two years ago. While we have no evidence whatsoever, we assume that the Tea Party membership has also plans to tackle voter fraud by having members volunteer to be officials in many, many precincts in America if for no other reason than to look for irregularities and stopping possible violations of voting rules. This should keep Voting Fraud to a minimum and therewith lessen its impact on races. If nothing else, these attempts should be limited and not be large enough to effect the outcome of the elections in any contest anywhere.
This would be a major improvement over past elections and while it may not amount to any significant shift in the outcome, it would definitely be a good thing for America as a whole. If we all could at least believe in the end that the elections – regardless of outcome – were held accurately and proper, it would represent a victory for our country.
A lot can happen between now and November 2 and it could effect the final results of races but we believe that an increase in Voting Intensity and a reduction in Voting Fraud could be the real winners and the strongest elements this year. We hope that we will be proven right in a few weeks.